Consensus Optimism Index, 2013, Week 6

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Consensus Optimism Index (COI)

Current value: 60.0
Previous value: 45.7

Forex Sentiment index

COI 2013, Week 6

After lowering their optimistic expectations for the previous week (COI value of 46), the optimistic mood among the analysts is again on the rise. The overall index value for the current week is 60%. The analysts are more optimistic about the economic data coming from the European Union (71% of the data is expected to deliver better-than-previous values), whereas the consensus optimistic estimates for the U.S. data are declining to 33% (down from 40%) of all estimates. This makes the euro to be the receiver of more positive expectations during the current week. From a contrarian point of view, this might lead to a greater downside volatility in the EUR/USD rate because of increased risk of negative surprises.

More info about the economic events and data coming through the current week you could find in our “EUR/USD: The Week Ahead” analysis, published in the SeekingAlpha website.

About the COI Forex Sentiment Index

Our Consensus Optimism Index (COI) measures the proportion between the optimistic analysts expectations and all expectations, including pessimistic. A value above 50 would indicate that the consensuses show a more optimistic than pessimistic picture. Generally, the change in the index could be used as a tool to assess EUR/USD exchange rate market mood. It should be noted however, that the rate rather moves on the real data, or on the difference between the real data and the expectations, i.e. positive or negative surprises.

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