Consensus Optimism Index, 2013, Week 12

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Consensus Optimism Index (COI)

Current value: 85.19
Previous value: 56.55

Forex Sentiment index

COI 2013, Week 12

Currently the analysts expectations regarding the economic data during the week ahead are overly optimistic. The overall index value for the current week is 60%. The analysts are more optimistic about the economic data coming from the U.S. (90% of the data is expected to deliver better-than-previous values), whereas the consensus optimistic estimates for the European Union data are taking 82.35% of all the European estimates (up from about 42% for the previous week). This generally makes the U.S. dollar to be the receiver of more positive expectations during the current week. In the current economic situation in the world, however, positive economical news from both sides of the ocean would benefit the euro, which is regarded as the risk-on currency in the pair.

From a contrarian point of view, this concentration of positive expectations increases the risk of negative surprises which, if occur, would benefit the U.S. dollar.

More info about the economic events and data coming through the current week you could find in our “EUR/USD: The Week Ahead” analysis, published in the SeekingAlpha website.

About the COI Forex Sentiment Index

Our Consensus Optimism Index (COI) measures the proportion between the optimistic analysts expectations and all expectations, including pessimistic. A value above 50 would indicate that the consensuses show a more optimistic than pessimistic picture. Generally, the change in the index could be used as a tool to assess EUR/USD exchange rate market mood. It should be noted however, that the rate rather moves on the real data, or on the difference between the real data and the expectations, i.e. positive or negative surprises.

2 Trackbacks

  1. От best technical analysis stocks on July 18, 2013 at 12:09 pm

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  2. От Vanessa Bruno on July 25, 2013 at 12:14 pm

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